Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Is Mugica this years Halbert?

After an opening week loss at the hands of Kiwon, Mugica has proceeded to rattle off 4 victories. In these victories, he has yet to sniff the 90 point mark. He also finds himself 2 wins ahead of a team that he is 50+ points behind. However, if we call weeks that are not within 20 points of the majority of weeks that team has played an outlier, then Mugica has averaged a full 1.7 points above the league average. Which make me believe he indeed has a better than average team that should have a record above .500.

We then begin to think hmmmm... who is this years halbert? Lets start with the lowest scoring team Karalis. He must immediately be eliminated from consideration based on the fact he has no wins and the premise of this competition is that a team gets lucky in its wins. Next up the list, Halbert, has 1.7 more points than Karalis and 2 more wins. Using the same outlier premise as we used with Mugica, we toss out 2 of Halberts weeks and find his average to be 24 points lower than league average at 53 points.

Makes things quite clear... Halbert IS this years Halbert! That lucky bastard.